Experts: Perry Faces Long Odds in NH

Rick Perry faces a huge obstacle as he prepares to  -- here in New Hampshire, nobody knows who he is.

Nobody may be a bit of an overstatement, but not too much of one. In the University of New Hampshire Survey Center's most recent poll of likely Republican Primary voters, Perry finished at 4 percent, behind Ron Paul and Rudy Giuliani (7 percent apiece) and just ahead of Tim Pawlenty and Sarah Palin (3 percent each).

"It's not as if we're seeing anything in our polls right now that's really calling for a Rick Perry candidacy," said Andy Smith, director of the UNH Survey Center.

Perry's favorability rating was 34 percent, with 15 percent unfavorable, but more importantly, a whopping 42 percent said they don't know enough about him.

"He's just not very well known," Smith said. "He's got the same problem (Jon) Huntsman and (Rick) Santorum and Pawlenty all have. They're not very well known outside of their states or outside of central political circles."

Smith said that while Perry might do well in a place like Iowa where his socially conservative views play well, his strong religious views could actually work against him here in New Hampshire.

"A lot depends on how much he's willing to do here," added UNH political science professor Dante Scala. "I mean, certainly, he's a candidate who initially is a better fit for the South than he would be in New Hampshire. But on the other hand, what impresses me so far is how unsettled the very conservative side of the field is."

If Perry is willing to spend time and money in New Hampshire, then he has a chance to fill that void.

"He'd have his work cut out for him here, but I still think there's an opening," Scala said. "It depends on what he's willing to do."

Also working in Perry's favor, Smith said, is the fact that he has Dave Carney working for him. The longtime New Hampshire GOP consultant had been with the Gingrich campaign until cutting ties with the former House Speaker in early June.

"He knows the game in New Hampshire pretty well," Smith said of Carney, who served as White House political director under George H.W. Bush.

And though Perry is entering the race late, Smith said there's still plenty of time for him to make an impact.

"He'll get a bounce out of his announcement," he said. "There's nothing else going on this time of year at all. He's got all the media to himself for a little while."